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Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
 Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil prices over the past couple of months. With Iranian oil out of the picture for many of the main importers, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the OPEC countries have already started to gradually increase their output to cover the demand gap, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping.
However, he further noted that, these plans were disrupted by a footnote in these most recent sanctions, which stated that several countries (including China, India and Japan) are allowed to continue importing oil from Teheran for a limited time period, but without any specified limitation in the imported volume. It is worth mentioning that China is the biggest importer of Iranian oil. This would essentially leave Iranian production levels to approximately 1.1 million bpd in November and to even higher figures in December. In addition to this, competition from other countries has intensified. Russia has raised its output during the previous months (11.41 million bpd in October), and with further growth being planned for 2019. At the same time, US production is expected to reach to 10.7 million bpd by the end of the year and is set to increase by another 250,000 bpd in 2019. As a result, Brent oil prices, which had reached a four-year high of $86 a barrel in October based on tight supply concerns, have slid back down to $67 now, losing around 21% within a month.
Allied weekly research report further said, with a supply glut on the horizon, Saudi Arabia is now considering proceeding, together with the rest of OPEC members, to an output cut of about 1.4 million bpd, even though Washington asserts that the provision of waivers is a temporary measure. Another interesting aspect of the Iranian sanctions is the possible decision by Teheran to maintain production numbers at high levels, even after the waiver program expires, and use some of the domestic VLCC fleet as floating storage. With a considerable portion of the Iranian tanker fleet out of the picture, market participants can expect a positive impact on the demand for the rest of global tanker fleet despite reports that there are already around 14 inactive Iranian VLCCs.
Moreover, Yiannis Vamvakas said, it is worth mentioning that the average haul should increase, adding further support for freight rates. China will turn its focus to other oil sources with West Africa and Brazil being most likely candidates, increasing the average ton-mile demand significantly. Other Far Eastern countries that are currently under the US waiver program will also change their import business partners with the US being an additional option. However, here we should mention that despite the continuing dredging that takes place in the US Gulf ports, fully loaded VLCCs are still unable to call the majority of ports there.
Freight rates in the crude oil market have already picked up over the past couple of weeks, with the Iranian sanctions being an important factor. Beyond this however, with the northern hemisphere enter into its winter period, the seasonal increases in oil demand that typically take place have also played a significant role in this most recent rally. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) announced in their latest monthly report that its forecast for global demand growth for 2018 and 2019 have remained unchanged from last month. With some volatility being anticipated due to uncertainty in the oil market, market participants are expecting the positive sentiment to continue for the rest of 2018, as well as the first quarter of 2019. However, with the rate of deliveries expected to be seen within 2019 this current upward momentum trend may well end up being curbed significantly in the long run.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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