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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
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Showing 1521 to 1525 news of total 6871 |
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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