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Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
 Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using emissions compliant fuels, or ensure that emissions are cleaned using an exhaust gas scrubber. We saw that even though scrubber retrofits started slowly, momentum has been building up as owners that are time-chartering their vessels stand to benefit.
There are currently reported more than 1,600 ships with confirmed scrubber projects when back in 2015 the number was in the low 200. Most of the recently singed projects are for bulk and oil/chemical ships, with bulk carrier retrofits in first place, oil/chemical tankers in second and containers in third place.
As per Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB’s (SEB) IMO 2020 Report, it is estimated that less than 2,000 vessels will have been fitted with scrubbers by the implementation date, while a significant price delta between HFO and LSGO is also projected, providing the scrubber installed vessels with a significant short-term advantage post 2020. With most reports out there highlighting this advantage one would normally wonder why aren’t more owners rushing to install scrubbers at the moment.
We understand that this “wait and see” approach is compounded by the fact that owners pay for scrubbers (CAPEX) and charterers pay for fuel (OPEX), and that if most vessels are operating without scrubbers, charter market prices will largely be set by those vessels factoring in higher fuel costs without a competitive disadvantage.
According to the same analysis by SEB, those moving to install scrubbers now will be at a competitive advantage compared to their non-scrubber counterparts in the first few years after the implementation. These first movers will likely be able to charge substantial “freight rate premiums” to account for the fuel related savings while operating the vessel. These premiums are projected to allow for a quick payback on the initial investment as others are focusing on scrubbers.
We have seen Koch fixing the M/T New Champion (310kdwt, blt ’18 China) from China Merchants Energy Shipping for two years at $29,750/day with an option to upgrade the ship with scrubber installation and increase the daily rate up to $35,000/day.
MSI has also calculated that in 2020, the value of the time charter premium for a Capesize vessel fitted with a scrubber will be $12,100/day, for a Panamax vessel it would be $6,800/day, $6,300/day for an Ultramax and $5,100/day for a Handysize. MSI also predicted increased asset values for tankers with scrubbers given that the time-charter premium exists.
As the 2020 deadline approaches it becomes clearer that vessels with scrubbers will definitely benefit with substantial premiums, while the extend of the period during which these premiums will apply remains key to the competitive advantage the scrubber investment can offer. As far as bigger ships in either sector are concerned, the installation of a scrubber is considered a no brainer for most, while when it comes to smaller sizes things are not as straightforward, with slow steaming slowly but steadily starting to become a topic of interest as a result.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Oil Products
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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