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Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
 Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using emissions compliant fuels, or ensure that emissions are cleaned using an exhaust gas scrubber. We saw that even though scrubber retrofits started slowly, momentum has been building up as owners that are time-chartering their vessels stand to benefit.
There are currently reported more than 1,600 ships with confirmed scrubber projects when back in 2015 the number was in the low 200. Most of the recently singed projects are for bulk and oil/chemical ships, with bulk carrier retrofits in first place, oil/chemical tankers in second and containers in third place.
As per Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB’s (SEB) IMO 2020 Report, it is estimated that less than 2,000 vessels will have been fitted with scrubbers by the implementation date, while a significant price delta between HFO and LSGO is also projected, providing the scrubber installed vessels with a significant short-term advantage post 2020. With most reports out there highlighting this advantage one would normally wonder why aren’t more owners rushing to install scrubbers at the moment.
We understand that this “wait and see” approach is compounded by the fact that owners pay for scrubbers (CAPEX) and charterers pay for fuel (OPEX), and that if most vessels are operating without scrubbers, charter market prices will largely be set by those vessels factoring in higher fuel costs without a competitive disadvantage.
According to the same analysis by SEB, those moving to install scrubbers now will be at a competitive advantage compared to their non-scrubber counterparts in the first few years after the implementation. These first movers will likely be able to charge substantial “freight rate premiums” to account for the fuel related savings while operating the vessel. These premiums are projected to allow for a quick payback on the initial investment as others are focusing on scrubbers.
We have seen Koch fixing the M/T New Champion (310kdwt, blt ’18 China) from China Merchants Energy Shipping for two years at $29,750/day with an option to upgrade the ship with scrubber installation and increase the daily rate up to $35,000/day.
MSI has also calculated that in 2020, the value of the time charter premium for a Capesize vessel fitted with a scrubber will be $12,100/day, for a Panamax vessel it would be $6,800/day, $6,300/day for an Ultramax and $5,100/day for a Handysize. MSI also predicted increased asset values for tankers with scrubbers given that the time-charter premium exists.
As the 2020 deadline approaches it becomes clearer that vessels with scrubbers will definitely benefit with substantial premiums, while the extend of the period during which these premiums will apply remains key to the competitive advantage the scrubber investment can offer. As far as bigger ships in either sector are concerned, the installation of a scrubber is considered a no brainer for most, while when it comes to smaller sizes things are not as straightforward, with slow steaming slowly but steadily starting to become a topic of interest as a result.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Oil Products
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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