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Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
 Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using emissions compliant fuels, or ensure that emissions are cleaned using an exhaust gas scrubber. We saw that even though scrubber retrofits started slowly, momentum has been building up as owners that are time-chartering their vessels stand to benefit.
There are currently reported more than 1,600 ships with confirmed scrubber projects when back in 2015 the number was in the low 200. Most of the recently singed projects are for bulk and oil/chemical ships, with bulk carrier retrofits in first place, oil/chemical tankers in second and containers in third place.
As per Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB’s (SEB) IMO 2020 Report, it is estimated that less than 2,000 vessels will have been fitted with scrubbers by the implementation date, while a significant price delta between HFO and LSGO is also projected, providing the scrubber installed vessels with a significant short-term advantage post 2020. With most reports out there highlighting this advantage one would normally wonder why aren’t more owners rushing to install scrubbers at the moment.
We understand that this “wait and see” approach is compounded by the fact that owners pay for scrubbers (CAPEX) and charterers pay for fuel (OPEX), and that if most vessels are operating without scrubbers, charter market prices will largely be set by those vessels factoring in higher fuel costs without a competitive disadvantage.
According to the same analysis by SEB, those moving to install scrubbers now will be at a competitive advantage compared to their non-scrubber counterparts in the first few years after the implementation. These first movers will likely be able to charge substantial “freight rate premiums” to account for the fuel related savings while operating the vessel. These premiums are projected to allow for a quick payback on the initial investment as others are focusing on scrubbers.
We have seen Koch fixing the M/T New Champion (310kdwt, blt ’18 China) from China Merchants Energy Shipping for two years at $29,750/day with an option to upgrade the ship with scrubber installation and increase the daily rate up to $35,000/day.
MSI has also calculated that in 2020, the value of the time charter premium for a Capesize vessel fitted with a scrubber will be $12,100/day, for a Panamax vessel it would be $6,800/day, $6,300/day for an Ultramax and $5,100/day for a Handysize. MSI also predicted increased asset values for tankers with scrubbers given that the time-charter premium exists.
As the 2020 deadline approaches it becomes clearer that vessels with scrubbers will definitely benefit with substantial premiums, while the extend of the period during which these premiums will apply remains key to the competitive advantage the scrubber investment can offer. As far as bigger ships in either sector are concerned, the installation of a scrubber is considered a no brainer for most, while when it comes to smaller sizes things are not as straightforward, with slow steaming slowly but steadily starting to become a topic of interest as a result.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Oil Products
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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