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Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
 Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using emissions compliant fuels, or ensure that emissions are cleaned using an exhaust gas scrubber. We saw that even though scrubber retrofits started slowly, momentum has been building up as owners that are time-chartering their vessels stand to benefit.
There are currently reported more than 1,600 ships with confirmed scrubber projects when back in 2015 the number was in the low 200. Most of the recently singed projects are for bulk and oil/chemical ships, with bulk carrier retrofits in first place, oil/chemical tankers in second and containers in third place.
As per Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB’s (SEB) IMO 2020 Report, it is estimated that less than 2,000 vessels will have been fitted with scrubbers by the implementation date, while a significant price delta between HFO and LSGO is also projected, providing the scrubber installed vessels with a significant short-term advantage post 2020. With most reports out there highlighting this advantage one would normally wonder why aren’t more owners rushing to install scrubbers at the moment.
We understand that this “wait and see” approach is compounded by the fact that owners pay for scrubbers (CAPEX) and charterers pay for fuel (OPEX), and that if most vessels are operating without scrubbers, charter market prices will largely be set by those vessels factoring in higher fuel costs without a competitive disadvantage.
According to the same analysis by SEB, those moving to install scrubbers now will be at a competitive advantage compared to their non-scrubber counterparts in the first few years after the implementation. These first movers will likely be able to charge substantial “freight rate premiums” to account for the fuel related savings while operating the vessel. These premiums are projected to allow for a quick payback on the initial investment as others are focusing on scrubbers.
We have seen Koch fixing the M/T New Champion (310kdwt, blt ’18 China) from China Merchants Energy Shipping for two years at $29,750/day with an option to upgrade the ship with scrubber installation and increase the daily rate up to $35,000/day.
MSI has also calculated that in 2020, the value of the time charter premium for a Capesize vessel fitted with a scrubber will be $12,100/day, for a Panamax vessel it would be $6,800/day, $6,300/day for an Ultramax and $5,100/day for a Handysize. MSI also predicted increased asset values for tankers with scrubbers given that the time-charter premium exists.
As the 2020 deadline approaches it becomes clearer that vessels with scrubbers will definitely benefit with substantial premiums, while the extend of the period during which these premiums will apply remains key to the competitive advantage the scrubber investment can offer. As far as bigger ships in either sector are concerned, the installation of a scrubber is considered a no brainer for most, while when it comes to smaller sizes things are not as straightforward, with slow steaming slowly but steadily starting to become a topic of interest as a result.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Oil Products
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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