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Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingChina's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says Fitch Ratings. The plan, whose main framework was introduced in March 2015, will also help to improve the utilisation of renewable energy.
 
The reform aims to "regulate the middle and open up the two ends", which includes the implementation of a regulated return-on-asset-based framework for power transmission and distribution. The effective margins under the revised structure are generally lower than the grids' previous profit spread between on-grid and retail tariffs, but Fitch expects the financial impact to be limited with China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd (CSG; A+/Stable) likely to bear more margin pressure than State Grid Corporation of China (A+/Stable) due to CSG's higher pre-reform return on assets. However, the reform removes price and volume risks for grid companies, resulting in higher cash flow stability. 
 
Market trading is also promoted under the reform, which cuts power generators' average selling prices due to China's oversupply. This has put pressure on coal-fired power plants' profitability, although the impact has been more modest than the effect of high coal prices on generators' margins. Hydropower projects have been less involved in market trading. The "Big Five" central state-owned independent power producers (IPPs) are likely to weather the margin pressures better than local IPPs in regions with higher percentages of market trading due to their asset diversity and ownership of hydro assets. 
 
The move towards market trading helps to improve utilisation of renewable energy, but at the cost of lower and more volatile selling prices. We think the government may gradually reduce guaranteed utilisation hours applicable for renewable energy, shifting more volume to market trading. Wind and solar farms currently suffering from severe curtailment will likely benefit from this the most as their utilisation should improve. However, projects that face little to no curtailment and are already enjoying high utilisation rates could be hurt by lower market prices.


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Saturday, 20 October 18
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Thursday, 18 October 18
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Wednesday, 17 October 18
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