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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur content cap regulation from 1st of January, 2020. Shipowners will have to choose between available options for them to comply with the regulation, while refiners will have to make suitable changes to refinery configuration and production in response to market demand. Thus far all parties will have to decide on the most efficient and appropriate solution that will suit their operations and allow them to remain commercially sustainable in the long run.
The swipe from the present 3.5% to 0.5% Sulphur content marine fuel will practically be an overnight shift as refineries would need to continue production and supply of up to 3.5% marine fuel until the day regulation requirement kicks in. Global refining will face enormous logistics, storage and delivery issues, while ships will have to clean out fuel systems to avoid Sulphur contamination. Thus, there is a risk such quick swing to lead to a period of product shortages and inflated marine oil prices. According to data reported on average up to 2017, the shipping industry was consuming approximately 3.2m barrels p/d of HFO and 800k p/d of MGO. Accordingly, from 2020 onwards it is estimated that proportion will alter to 700k p/d of HFO to 3.4m barrels p/d of MGO. Obviously, the use of compliant Sulphur oil products will be the expensive solution for ship-owners that will either absorb the cost or possibly operators will try to pass the cost to Charterers via increased freight rates.
Simple refineries that produce a substantial share of their crude oil into HFO may face margin pressures, while complex refineries with greater infrastructures may potentially boost margins with larger production of low Sulphur products. IEA has stated that if refiners ran at similar utilization rates as of today, it would be unlikely to produce the essential volumes of gas oil. Particularly, if quantity rises to meet the required gas oil volumes, margins would be inevitably affected by shrinking profits.
Overall, oil majors and refineries will try to back up the bunker fuel demand ascending from the new regulation through several ways. Refiners may elevate ULSFO production by extracting low Sulphur fuel streams that are currently blended into LSFO or HSFO will be made available to the market as ULS FO. ExxonMobil, for example has introduced a product, Heavy Distillate Marine ECA 50 that can be consumed onboard like HFO and has only 0.1% Sulphur content. Furthermore, refiners have an issue of handling their surplus residue as this option comes with higher risk on returns of investment. This is due to the fact that oil demand is founded on shippers’ uptake of alternative options such as scrubber installation and LNG bunkering. Refiners can raise LNG bunker supplies in major bunkering hubs. In Singapore, Shell and ExxonMobil are working with Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore to supply LNG as fuel.
To sum up, in the scenario that refineries restrict the availability of HFO on expected higher margins from selling MGO, then vessels fitted with scrubbers might face challenges in relation to adequate supply of HFO. On the other hand, refineries worry that any surge in the use of MGO would head to excess quantity of HFO. For sure refineries are not rushing to big investments to change production set ups while ship-owners are still considering their options. It’s a dilemma for all parties and a puzzle to be solved.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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