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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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