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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if they are happy with the market, you will get a reply “mmmh... not really...”. The market hike seems to have hit a ceiling the past months and whilst the ship earnings have doubled or tripled compared to two years ago, they still seem to be just a touch (?) away from their break-even. Also, opposite to the common belief, during the past few months instead of further improvement we have seen a lot of volatility and a resistance to get to higher levels.
On the ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by 181 vessels since last year corresponding to a marginal growth of just below 2%. This moderate fleet increase versus four percent global growth has no doubt been a major driver of the recovery. Looking forward, there has been some order replenishment and in fact the orderbook is today bigger than what it was a year ago; about half of the new orders are Kamsarmaxes, generating some concerns on over ordering and affecting an already fragile market. On the other hand we can easily argue that the environmental regulations that are coming into force over the next couple of years, will call on owners to make substantial investments in their assets and we don't expect them to upgrade their older vessels. Current orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.5% of the world fleet and with 9% of the fleet being over 20 years old you have a good release valve to balance the new deliveries.
On the other side of the equation there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environment friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow; this is a fact. On the other hand, shipping is inherently correlated to the world economy, so the trade contraction from trade wars, may translate into reduction in demand for shipping, and although China is no longer growing at eight or ten percent annually, it's still leading the demand for tonne miles. To put it simply, the demand is under short term shakedown from president Trump. Up until today, the markets have been on wait-and-see mode whether the threats are valid and how far the confrontation will go. The US president's tariffs have been met with Chinese retaliation and Beijing administration confident that they can cope with full scale trade war.
So, although we don't see a ceiling, since there seem to be strong fundamentals for the market to improve further, we are now on a kind of a plateau whereby there are economic as well as political reasons that are preventing markets to improve further. For shipping we believe that this will work in its favour in the longer term as, although it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there, it makes the ship-owners more careful, patient and they avoid overreactions. This situation should also remind everybody that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players – both know and unknown - is to perpetuate the game.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
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Showing 1586 to 1590 news of total 6871 |
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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