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Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
AlliedThe Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself in” back in 2016 and pushed back to respectable earning levels during the latter half of 2017 and this year. 
 
According to the latest weekly report from Allied ship broking, at the same time, The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) hit the 3,632 basis points one week ago, which was its highest point in the year so far. In addition to this, the average figure so far for the summer period has outperformed the respective figures quoted for the same seasonal period for the past 5 years. While we are at a peak point for the year, it seems bizarre that this is taking place right in the midst of August, given that historically the first half of August has been a softer time point in the year, while the market usually recovers from a low point in the second half of August. 
 
The report further said, having already covered the coal market in previous weeks and how has played its part in helping boost freight market conditions in the short run for the bigger size segments, it is time we taken a second look at is going on in most critical commodity (in terms of volumes shipped) for the dry bulk space. Iron ore has held a bullish face as of late, with its price moving close to $70/ton, well above the once considered normalization level of around $60/ton. Strong conditions noted in the steel market, as well as reduced stock piles have helped push considerably for a considerable tightening in the market and a strong jump in terms of pricing. Indicatively, for the month of June, steel output in China was up by around 7.5% year-on-year, while in the face of the trade dispute it currently finds itself in, the short-term economic growth has been boosted substantially as most are seemingly seeking to boost production volumes before the “storm” hits.
 
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied says in his latest weekly report, having mentioned the positive drivers, it seems as though things can be said to look as rosy when looking at the macroeconomic prospects of this commodity’s market. In the short run, even with most factors laying in favor of a robust market, a softening Chinese currency can surely alter the dynamics and weaken trade as the local price starts to escalate. Furthermore, signs of easing back of the Chinese economy already being noted and given that we haven’t seen the true impact of its current trade disruptions with the United States, it is hard to see a scenario where by steel production volumes continue to rise at their current pace and in effect drive for ever higher demand for iron ore imports. 
 
According to Thomas Chasapis, all-in-all, the scene in the market can be sometimes rather deceptive. So far, healthy appetite for steel products and strong import volumes on the back of falling Chinese domestic iron ore production and shift towards ever more higher-grade iron ore (from Australia and Brazil) has driven many to speculate on a very firm final quarter for the year, with a rally that they feel will prove to be heftier than that of the previous year. However, let’s not forget that there are still some “cracks” to be noted in the robustness of the current trend seen. Furthermore, there may well be signs that the overall seasonality patterns have changed somewhat, something that could well lead to a market peak prior to the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, this doesn’t necessarily indicate a bearish mode to be held either. Even if the market falls short on expectations this is still fair reason to anticipate a good performance for the remainder of the year, consisted by moderate earnings and an overall balanced state with no or limited exaggerations Thomas Chasapis concluded in its report.


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