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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing days lay ahead.
In the year to date earnings have followed much in line with the troubled levels that were being noted a year prior. The main difference was that this year we were starting to get “good vibes” as to the prospects of both trade and fleet development moving forward George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations in Allied shipping says in his latest weekly report.
In terms of trade, the steps that were slowly being taken by OPEC and Russia, namely to ramp up their production levels, were already starting to pay dividends on some routes. At the same time the Fracking revolution in the US has already helped shift trade patterns in such a way that each extra tonne of crude oil being shipped on average adds for considerably increase in tone-mile against what it would be adding a couple of years back. He further noted that, given that most of the foreseeable consumption growth is seemingly being generated from Far Eastern economies, the significance of this latter point gains further traction and weighting when looking at expectations of how trade will evolve moving forward. Just to put a few figures to mind, the Asian Pacific and African regions have shown a 31.1% and 32.1% increase in crude oil consumption over the past decade according to the latest figures provided by BP’s statistical review, while in comparison Europe and North America have shown a decrease of 9.1% and 5.3% during the same time frame.
According to George Lazaridis , in the case of the Asian Pacific region this growth rate is ever more significant given that the region now holds a 35.6% share of global crude oil consumption (Africa on the other hand still takes up a mere 4.2%) marking it close to on par with the combined share of 39.8% taken up by Europe and North America. The trend therefore seems to be ever more Eastbound for trade flow in this sector, while given that the US is now being poised as becoming a strong export player, the recent trend noted in terms of tonne-mile increases, is likely to further bolster over the coming years.
On the other side of the equation, we had been witnessing a relative improvement in the overall crude oil tanker fleet development over the past 6 months. The total fleet of crude oil tankers has decreased by around 0.4% during the first 6 months of the year, mainly thanks to the extensive ship recycling activity undertaken and the relatively “soft” newbuilding delivery schedule that was at hand. With this trend likely set to continue on for at least the near-term, especially in the case of newbuilding deliveries where things have eased off further, the freight market should find a relative balance even under the pessimistic scenario that we see a minimal growth rate emerge in terms of trade.
Given that there are still a fair number of indicators pointing to an improvement in trade volumes for the near term, there should in theory be reasonable room for a fair spike in freight rates to take place in the final quarter of the year. Granted that the recent trade disputes that have arisen between the US and China have dampened hopes by a certain degree, but the overall trend is still there and given that OPEC and Russia are still looking to be committed to their goal of increasing their production levels, this should help generate an ever-increasing flow of crude to the East.
At the same time, it is important to take note that there still seems to be a wave of new refinery capacity set to come online in China (Asia’s largest consumer) while it is important to note that the countries oil refinery throughput had risen by 8.2% y-o-y in May.
- George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations, Allied Shipping -
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Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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