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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken effect today morning.
These recent tariffs are on USD 34 billion worth in imports on each side and have so far been imposed with minimal reactions from markets said George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping research in his latest weekly shipping research report. He further noted that, the biggest concern now being voiced is with regards to a further escalation in this trade war, with propositions for additional tariffs to be placed on a further USD 200 billion worth of goods. It looks as though the first stage in this heated trade dispute has passed with a relatively mild reaction from markets due in part to the fact that most had already been taking positions months in advance. As things stand now most economists place a limited likelihood on the potential of further escalation taking place, giving the possibility of the additional tariffs on USD 200 billion of imports a 40 per cent chance of materializing. Nevertheless, it is still worth considering the impact a further escalation would have given the comments being passed around of late. With the U.S. having already threatened of an escalation of tariffs on almost all Chinese imports and at the same time open further fronts on global car imports and NAFTA, many are now quoting a final figure of affected goods close to the USD 1 trillion mark. This figure, if reached, would be equivalent to just over a quarter of the US’s total trade with the world and around 6 percent of the total global trade in goods. That could be quite a bite and would surely have detrimental nock on effects on economic growth figures across the globe.
George Lazaridis further noted, this is however the worst-case scenario and most of us are still holding hope that things will subside much before we reach anywhere near this point. Given however the way things have developed so far, such an outcome is not entirely farfetched and outside the realm of what is possible. Considering how these increased costs would be passed on to business and final consumers, the negative affect they would have on demand is self-explanatory. The overall bit out of global growth may well be minimal at an initial stage, but when taking into account that the positive signs being seen over the past couple of years have also been more minor as well, this would lead to yet another off-balance point for the demand-supply balance in shipping. Obviously the first to feel the pinch would be containerships which had only just started to show signs of recovering, while bulk shipping would be quick to follow as the net effects take hold of the whole supply chain of the products impacted.
On the plus side, shipping is probably in its best form to deal with any of these negative scenarios, with shipping capacity growth having been curbed and not set to see any notable increases in the near future for most of the main sectors says George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping research. As an indicator of this it is worth pointing to the fact that the current dry bulk orderbook stands at 8.43% of the trading fleet in terms of number of vessels, a figure which can still be considered as one of the lowest noted historically. At the same time, even under these current favorable earning conditions being seen, the fleet has only increased by 1.15% over the past six months, while given the orderbook schedule for the remaining six months, there is not much expectation for this figure to increase by too much by the end of the year. If things do eventually turn south between the U.S. and its trading partners and tit-for-tat tariffs do take hold, this capped fleet growth rate could help sustain to a certain degree a relatively favorable market in terms of earnings, George Lazaridis concluded.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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