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Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
 Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specifically the Capesize market, while looking to get a feel as to what we can expect during the second half of the year.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping, all-in-all, it has been a rather interesting half, with a considerable amount of volatility, underlining how fragile the market balance remains and how vulnerable it is to small shifts in trading trends. Indicatively, the BDI finished June at 1,385 points, a level which is just above the 1,366 points which it closed off the previous year, whereas contrary to this, the Capesize index, which tends to be the main influencing size segment, finished at slightly softer level, reaching the 2,170 point mark, compared to the 2,830 basis points it ended off in December 2017.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, this is a considerable drop, though worth mentioning that it is still well above its 6-month average figure.
So where does all this leave us now?
Are we going to be able to see a strong rally in the final quarter of the year that will help us brake above the 4,000 point mark on the BCI?
or is the capsize market going to suffer from the global economic and political turmoil at play, leading it to a perpetual motion between the 800 and 3,000 point level for the remainder of the year?
Research Analyst of Allied says, the answer may lie somewhere in between, given the multiple influencing factors currently at play. On the Iron ore front, China, just had its best month in terms of imports, probably well above 90 million tons, an important figure when you take into account the fact that China is by far the largest importer. Moreover, Coal, the second main commodity for Capes, has been showing a remarkable rise in trade volumes in the year so far (as has been pointed out in previous weeks) and given the recent positive trends noted in terms of pricing of the commodity, shows for an equally promising performance over the months ahead. The caveat here is that both these commodities are highly dependent on steel production and although steel output figures in China are around 5% higher compared to last year, they are also highly susceptible to the risk of any dampening effect the recent trade war tariffs could eventually have on the steel products trade. Taking note of the overall balance at play in the market it is important to note that the Capesize fleet development has been holding at a modest level of around 1.02%, well below what was being noted in the year prior. Given all this and even when taking into account the risk overhang on trade, it looks as though a more attuned supply demand balance may well still be at play.
With all being said, the first half of 2018 has left us with an eerie feel, with the intense ups and downs noted in the market being the cause of increased uncertainty. We can anticipate that for the rest of the summer period, things will be moving in a similar pattern to what we have witnessed so far in the year. Most will be likely focusing on the final quarter of the year, which is traditionally the most bullish seasonal point for Capesize vessels. As to if the market will be able to break above its previous highs during the fourth quarter, it looks as though most market thoughts are in favor of such an outcome at this point. Though all this would depend largely on the current trade trends being sustained and not so susceptible to any geopolitical interruptions at play, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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