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Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
 Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specifically the Capesize market, while looking to get a feel as to what we can expect during the second half of the year.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping, all-in-all, it has been a rather interesting half, with a considerable amount of volatility, underlining how fragile the market balance remains and how vulnerable it is to small shifts in trading trends. Indicatively, the BDI finished June at 1,385 points, a level which is just above the 1,366 points which it closed off the previous year, whereas contrary to this, the Capesize index, which tends to be the main influencing size segment, finished at slightly softer level, reaching the 2,170 point mark, compared to the 2,830 basis points it ended off in December 2017.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, this is a considerable drop, though worth mentioning that it is still well above its 6-month average figure.
So where does all this leave us now?
Are we going to be able to see a strong rally in the final quarter of the year that will help us brake above the 4,000 point mark on the BCI?
or is the capsize market going to suffer from the global economic and political turmoil at play, leading it to a perpetual motion between the 800 and 3,000 point level for the remainder of the year?
Research Analyst of Allied says, the answer may lie somewhere in between, given the multiple influencing factors currently at play. On the Iron ore front, China, just had its best month in terms of imports, probably well above 90 million tons, an important figure when you take into account the fact that China is by far the largest importer. Moreover, Coal, the second main commodity for Capes, has been showing a remarkable rise in trade volumes in the year so far (as has been pointed out in previous weeks) and given the recent positive trends noted in terms of pricing of the commodity, shows for an equally promising performance over the months ahead. The caveat here is that both these commodities are highly dependent on steel production and although steel output figures in China are around 5% higher compared to last year, they are also highly susceptible to the risk of any dampening effect the recent trade war tariffs could eventually have on the steel products trade. Taking note of the overall balance at play in the market it is important to note that the Capesize fleet development has been holding at a modest level of around 1.02%, well below what was being noted in the year prior. Given all this and even when taking into account the risk overhang on trade, it looks as though a more attuned supply demand balance may well still be at play.
With all being said, the first half of 2018 has left us with an eerie feel, with the intense ups and downs noted in the market being the cause of increased uncertainty. We can anticipate that for the rest of the summer period, things will be moving in a similar pattern to what we have witnessed so far in the year. Most will be likely focusing on the final quarter of the year, which is traditionally the most bullish seasonal point for Capesize vessels. As to if the market will be able to break above its previous highs during the fourth quarter, it looks as though most market thoughts are in favor of such an outcome at this point. Though all this would depend largely on the current trade trends being sustained and not so susceptible to any geopolitical interruptions at play, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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