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Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
AlliedA sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despite the fact that the deal that has been in the works for some time now with the purpose of cooling down the recent hike in prices, many seemed to be relieved by the announcement, feeling that the increase in production did not go as far as most had anticipated and that most of the of the rise will be going partly to compensate for production outages in countries such as Venezuela, says George Lazaridis Head of Research & Valuations of Allied in his latest weekly report.
 
He further noted that, the production increase is roughly said to reach up to 1 million barrels a day collectively, while Russia is also onboard with the decision. Prices have cooled off slightly today from their high point on Friday, while at the same time we have been seeing a fair number of speculators cutting back on their bullish bets on crude, pushing crude oil futures and options to their lowest point in nearly eight months. 
 
According to George Lazaridis, this announcement for an increase in oil production levels comes at a point when the tanker market seems to be finally finding some stability. Rates managed to show some considerable improvement over the past week, especially for the larger Vessels and Suezmaxes, while it looks as though there could be some further improvement insight before we even start to see the production hikes take shape. 
 
At the same time, he said, it is important to note the developments we have seen in the crude oil tanker fleet since the start of the year. Over the course of the year the fleet has stayed relatively on par having decreased by 1 vessel or 0.04%. For comparison, during the same time frame back in 2017 the fleet growth rate had reached 3.27%, while it finally closed off the year with a rate of increase of 4.23%. Given that the second half of the year is expected to go much the same way in terms of fleet development as what we have witnessed during the first half, we should be set for a fair rebalancing between demand and supply in the market. Adding to the mix this recent increase in production and the boost in trade it could drive given the fact that it comes at a time of rising global demand, we should see a fair improvement in trade volumes over the coming months. 
 
This should translate into a fair strong growth rate for trade for the year as a whole, while it goes without saying that most of this increase is to be noted over the next six months which should mean for a fair improvement in the freight market for crude oil tankers. 
 
George Lazaridis says, however, it hasn’t been all great news of late. One of the most promising developments of late, namely the increasing trade flows that have been witnessed between the US and Far East could be set for a major setback. The recent trade friction between the US and a number of its trading partners in the Far East does leave for a possibility of serious retaliatory action, something that could well take the form of a cutting back of crude oil imports from the US. Albeit those volumes from the US are still relatively small compared to the total global trade, their tonne-mile effect is worth taking note. At the same time, given the drop in crude oil prices that should in theory take place from this increase in oil production, the price arbitrage that typically drives this trade would sufficiently diminish. A scale back in this trade therefore would have a negative effect that would be sufficient to dampen the part of the boost that one would expect. To what extent remains to be seen as there are a fair amount of variables still in play. 


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