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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Monday, 29 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY AND FIRM THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 18.74%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 26 August 16
WEEKLY US COAL OUTPUT UP 0.7% W/W TO 16 MMST: EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Thursday, 25 August 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF $9000
Supramax
Due to Chinese coal imports which continues to source much of the tonnage in SE Asia combined with a good flow of mineral exports ex Aus ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
MARKET INSIGHT
Brazil and the world bid farewell on Sunday to the first Olympic Games in South America in the midst of a finale meant to be both one last bash and ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
DRY BULK VESSELS FACE CONTINUED DISTRESS - CLEAR ASSET
Dry bulk vessels have faced extreme distress in recent years. With a combination of factors including newer vessels being ordered with up to 5-year ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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