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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the carte ...
Tuesday, 30 May 17
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fair performance that has been noted in the Chinese economy over the past 5 months, we have started to see an increase in the skepticis ...
Friday, 26 May 17
MOST COAL PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES WERE BUILT BEFORE 1990 - EIA
Coal-fired electricity generators accounted for 25% of operating electricity generating capacity in the United States and generated about 30% of U. ...
Friday, 26 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATE UP 6.3% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.3 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 24 May 17
LR MARKET IT SEEMS THAT EARNINGS ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the summer season, the Clean Product market appears poised to become more challenging, either on East or West of Suez.
L ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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