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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the Inte ...
Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
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