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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
ANALYSING A NEW AGE OF AUTONOMOUS VESSELS - IMO
The International Maritime Organization answers the questions of Government Europa on how the next generation of autonomous vessels can be regulate ...
Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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