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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Monday, 02 July 18
THIESS SECURES NEW QCOAL NORTHERN HUB $480M CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a new A$480 million contract by QCoal to continue operations at the QCoal Northern Hub located in Queensland’s Bowen ...
Friday, 29 June 18
THE LBH GROUP AND RHENUS PLAN TO ESTABLISH A JOINT COMPANY
Press Release: The port services provider, the LBH Group, and the logistics specialist Rhenus, are planning to cooperate closely in the European in ...
Friday, 29 June 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO / CHINA COAL ROUNDS PAYING AROUND USD HIGH 11000 - FEARNLYS
Capesize
Its been an interesting week with a strong demand for ships out of Brazil, making C3 rates remain around USD 19 pmt said Fearnlys in i ...
Friday, 29 June 18
JAPAN'S TOHOKU ELEC, GLENCORE ABANDON APRIL-MARCH COAL CONTRACT TALKS - REUTERS
Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power Co Inc and Glencore Plc have abandoned talks on annual thermal coal supplies after failing to reach an agreemen ...
Wednesday, 27 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
After the abolishment of the trade embargo against Iran, there was a lot of optimism from the country’s side, as after quite some time a numb ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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