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Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
AlliedIn the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves caught up in further troubling announcements with regards to world trade. During the course of this weekend China’s Customs Tariffs Commission announced the enforcement of reciprocal tariffs of as high as 25% on 128 goods imported from the US, said George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping.

George Lazaridis  further noted his latest weekly market report, the breakdown includes import duties on fresh and dried fruits, ginseng, nuts, wine, pork and certain steel products, while government officials have left open insinuations of follow on tariffs to target high volume agricultural products such as soybeans. At its current standing these import tariffs are valued at around US$ 3.0 billion, a small drop compared to the trade actions the US president is seeking to undertake on Chinese goods during the 2Q 2018, with a plan to stamp a 25% import duty on a basket of goods valued at US$ 60 billion in 2017. In the midst of this it looks as though we are finding ourselves facing increased risk of a trade war ensuing, something that would surely have continued detrimental effects on both the growth course of global trade, but also on the overall global economic development.

George Lazaridis  also noted that, despite all the above, both sides are still looking to find ways to resolve their disputes through a trade settlement that could help keep both sides happy. The US president, Mr. Donald Trump is seeking to get China to agree to reduce the bilateral trade between the US and China by US$ 100 billion (last year’s trade deficit stood at US$ 375.23 billion), yet this may prove more complicated than is often stated in the press and amongst politicians. Given that most Chinese exports to the US are finished goods, we have to take into account that in the modern world, these goods comprise of sources and material value adding that is sourced from all over the world, while in many cases even the US itself. One can surely see how the US currently has the upper hand in pressuring Beijing to accept a deal, however it would be wise to take into consideration the nock on effects any such deal (be it one which is too stringent on Chinese goods) would have on American Companies.

What we point out once more as a warning however is detrimental effects all this may well have on seaborne trade. Shipping plays a highly prevalent role in the global supply chain of products and the disruptions that would be caused by the increasing barriers being placed by some of the largest economies in the world can surely cause havoc and easily reverse the recent upward trends noted in terms of trade growth both in a direct and indirect manner. At the same time and taking a more near-term look, we may well find that all this bichering and squabbling of recent could play for severe disruptions in the annual seasonal grain trade spikes, something that would surely hurt the dry bulk sector and more particularly the smaller size segments.

At the same time and given the already in force tariffs imposed on steel products, we are surely to see softer trade and in turn earnings figures emerge compared to what most would have been predicting at the end of 2017. To what extent these tariffs will dampen the market remains to be seen and will largely depend on the steps taken by these two nations over the coming days. Let’s hope that calm and reason settle in before any extreme steps are taken by either side and all sides find themselves at a loss as a consequence. Said George Lazaridis  of Allied.


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