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Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of sell offs in the technology sector.
According to George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping, at the face of it, it may well sound as if this is something restricted to an industry which is disconnected in its most part from the shipping industry. However, in part these tremors being noted in the form of price drops in equities are tied in part to the overall friction being seen in global trade. It has been just over two weeks since US President Donald Trump announced import tariffs on steel and aluminum, and the geopolitical aftershocks are still being felt. The period just after the announcement seems to be mainly characterized by a number of countries, including but not limited to Australia, the European Union and Japan, pushing to win exemptions from these newly announced tariffs. Yet, things seem to be taking a darker tone now, with a number of these countries now vowing to act through reprisal levies and tariffs on US imports.
George Lazaridis further noted that, as an overall read-through, the main note that most of us in shipping have taken is that these current tariffs have a limited direct effect on shipping markets. China, which is the leading producer of both these commodities has a minute share in the overall imports entering the US, despite the fact that the US President has focused on China in his usual populist rhetoric with regards to trade. China’s exports of steel and aluminum to the US amount to only just 0.03% of its GDP, while it only makes up around 4% of total steel imports into the US. The biggest threat has been to the US market’s main suppliers, which are the European Union, Canada, S. Korea, Mexico, Brazil and Japan, with Canada and Mexico having for the moment escaped the current levies as part of the ongoing negotiations with regards to the NAFTA trade agreement.
George Lazaridis Allied noted that, the majority of the rest seem to be taking the option of retaliatory levies quite seriously, while despite China being relatively unaffected for the time being, they have also joined in the general discussion proactively, possibly taking this opportunity to proclaim themselves as defenders of free trade.
The risk of a wider trade war sparking off does lay in the realm of possibility right now, yet even if things were to escalate to such a level, the negative effects on shipping would most likely come in the form of gradual waves. Under such a scenario we would likely see most retaliatory tariffs and levies being placed on finished final goods, possibly causing a disturbance on the containership market first and limited to mainly this sector in the initial phase. It would take a while before we would see a gradual slump emerge on the demand for raw materials, as the overall slump in global demand for finished products would slowly push purchasing managers to cut back their requirements.
This all sounds like a dire scenario indeed and most would be in angst as to the actual probability of such a series of events pulling through, especially given that we have only just started to see a favourable environment emerge in terms of global trade. The general thought and hope for the time being is that to some degree the US President will back down having been brought to his senses in a similar fashion to how back in the early 2000’s George W Bush eventually backed down on his protectionist steel-tariff plan. Lets hope things aren’t taken too far too quickly and we miss the point of no return.
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Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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