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Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of sell offs in the technology sector.
According to George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping, at the face of it, it may well sound as if this is something restricted to an industry which is disconnected in its most part from the shipping industry. However, in part these tremors being noted in the form of price drops in equities are tied in part to the overall friction being seen in global trade. It has been just over two weeks since US President Donald Trump announced import tariffs on steel and aluminum, and the geopolitical aftershocks are still being felt. The period just after the announcement seems to be mainly characterized by a number of countries, including but not limited to Australia, the European Union and Japan, pushing to win exemptions from these newly announced tariffs. Yet, things seem to be taking a darker tone now, with a number of these countries now vowing to act through reprisal levies and tariffs on US imports.
George Lazaridis further noted that, as an overall read-through, the main note that most of us in shipping have taken is that these current tariffs have a limited direct effect on shipping markets. China, which is the leading producer of both these commodities has a minute share in the overall imports entering the US, despite the fact that the US President has focused on China in his usual populist rhetoric with regards to trade. China’s exports of steel and aluminum to the US amount to only just 0.03% of its GDP, while it only makes up around 4% of total steel imports into the US. The biggest threat has been to the US market’s main suppliers, which are the European Union, Canada, S. Korea, Mexico, Brazil and Japan, with Canada and Mexico having for the moment escaped the current levies as part of the ongoing negotiations with regards to the NAFTA trade agreement.
George Lazaridis Allied noted that, the majority of the rest seem to be taking the option of retaliatory levies quite seriously, while despite China being relatively unaffected for the time being, they have also joined in the general discussion proactively, possibly taking this opportunity to proclaim themselves as defenders of free trade.
The risk of a wider trade war sparking off does lay in the realm of possibility right now, yet even if things were to escalate to such a level, the negative effects on shipping would most likely come in the form of gradual waves. Under such a scenario we would likely see most retaliatory tariffs and levies being placed on finished final goods, possibly causing a disturbance on the containership market first and limited to mainly this sector in the initial phase. It would take a while before we would see a gradual slump emerge on the demand for raw materials, as the overall slump in global demand for finished products would slowly push purchasing managers to cut back their requirements.
This all sounds like a dire scenario indeed and most would be in angst as to the actual probability of such a series of events pulling through, especially given that we have only just started to see a favourable environment emerge in terms of global trade. The general thought and hope for the time being is that to some degree the US President will back down having been brought to his senses in a similar fashion to how back in the early 2000’s George W Bush eventually backed down on his protectionist steel-tariff plan. Lets hope things aren’t taken too far too quickly and we miss the point of no return.
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Tuesday, 20 June 17
WORLD ECONOMY SHOWS A MORE OPTIMISTIC TREND
During the past weeks, we have seen many organizations and think tanks show a more optimistic face with regards to the world economy. The World Ban ...
Monday, 19 June 17
PANAMAX RATES HELP BALTIC INDEX TO A POSITIVE MOVE
COALspot.com: The Freight market rose very marginally this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Panamax indexes show a positive tren ...
Friday, 16 June 17
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION RISES; UP 24.1% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 15 June 17
SUPRAMAX NICKEL ORE FROM PHILIPPINES TO S. CHINA PAYING AROUND MID $10000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market looked more promising from both sides of the basins. Within Atlantic USG returned with tick better rates seen as tonnage kept tig ...
Wednesday, 14 June 17
WORLD COAL PRODUCTION FELL BY 6.2%, THE LARGEST ANNUAL DECLINE ON RECORD - BP
COALspot.com: The 2017 edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, shows global energy markets continuing to undergo long-term changes as ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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