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Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of sell offs in the technology sector.
According to George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping, at the face of it, it may well sound as if this is something restricted to an industry which is disconnected in its most part from the shipping industry. However, in part these tremors being noted in the form of price drops in equities are tied in part to the overall friction being seen in global trade. It has been just over two weeks since US President Donald Trump announced import tariffs on steel and aluminum, and the geopolitical aftershocks are still being felt. The period just after the announcement seems to be mainly characterized by a number of countries, including but not limited to Australia, the European Union and Japan, pushing to win exemptions from these newly announced tariffs. Yet, things seem to be taking a darker tone now, with a number of these countries now vowing to act through reprisal levies and tariffs on US imports.
George Lazaridis further noted that, as an overall read-through, the main note that most of us in shipping have taken is that these current tariffs have a limited direct effect on shipping markets. China, which is the leading producer of both these commodities has a minute share in the overall imports entering the US, despite the fact that the US President has focused on China in his usual populist rhetoric with regards to trade. China’s exports of steel and aluminum to the US amount to only just 0.03% of its GDP, while it only makes up around 4% of total steel imports into the US. The biggest threat has been to the US market’s main suppliers, which are the European Union, Canada, S. Korea, Mexico, Brazil and Japan, with Canada and Mexico having for the moment escaped the current levies as part of the ongoing negotiations with regards to the NAFTA trade agreement.
George Lazaridis Allied noted that, the majority of the rest seem to be taking the option of retaliatory levies quite seriously, while despite China being relatively unaffected for the time being, they have also joined in the general discussion proactively, possibly taking this opportunity to proclaim themselves as defenders of free trade.
The risk of a wider trade war sparking off does lay in the realm of possibility right now, yet even if things were to escalate to such a level, the negative effects on shipping would most likely come in the form of gradual waves. Under such a scenario we would likely see most retaliatory tariffs and levies being placed on finished final goods, possibly causing a disturbance on the containership market first and limited to mainly this sector in the initial phase. It would take a while before we would see a gradual slump emerge on the demand for raw materials, as the overall slump in global demand for finished products would slowly push purchasing managers to cut back their requirements.
This all sounds like a dire scenario indeed and most would be in angst as to the actual probability of such a series of events pulling through, especially given that we have only just started to see a favourable environment emerge in terms of global trade. The general thought and hope for the time being is that to some degree the US President will back down having been brought to his senses in a similar fashion to how back in the early 2000’s George W Bush eventually backed down on his protectionist steel-tariff plan. Lets hope things aren’t taken too far too quickly and we miss the point of no return.
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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