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Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of sell offs in the technology sector.
According to George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping, at the face of it, it may well sound as if this is something restricted to an industry which is disconnected in its most part from the shipping industry. However, in part these tremors being noted in the form of price drops in equities are tied in part to the overall friction being seen in global trade. It has been just over two weeks since US President Donald Trump announced import tariffs on steel and aluminum, and the geopolitical aftershocks are still being felt. The period just after the announcement seems to be mainly characterized by a number of countries, including but not limited to Australia, the European Union and Japan, pushing to win exemptions from these newly announced tariffs. Yet, things seem to be taking a darker tone now, with a number of these countries now vowing to act through reprisal levies and tariffs on US imports.
George Lazaridis further noted that, as an overall read-through, the main note that most of us in shipping have taken is that these current tariffs have a limited direct effect on shipping markets. China, which is the leading producer of both these commodities has a minute share in the overall imports entering the US, despite the fact that the US President has focused on China in his usual populist rhetoric with regards to trade. China’s exports of steel and aluminum to the US amount to only just 0.03% of its GDP, while it only makes up around 4% of total steel imports into the US. The biggest threat has been to the US market’s main suppliers, which are the European Union, Canada, S. Korea, Mexico, Brazil and Japan, with Canada and Mexico having for the moment escaped the current levies as part of the ongoing negotiations with regards to the NAFTA trade agreement.
George Lazaridis Allied noted that, the majority of the rest seem to be taking the option of retaliatory levies quite seriously, while despite China being relatively unaffected for the time being, they have also joined in the general discussion proactively, possibly taking this opportunity to proclaim themselves as defenders of free trade.
The risk of a wider trade war sparking off does lay in the realm of possibility right now, yet even if things were to escalate to such a level, the negative effects on shipping would most likely come in the form of gradual waves. Under such a scenario we would likely see most retaliatory tariffs and levies being placed on finished final goods, possibly causing a disturbance on the containership market first and limited to mainly this sector in the initial phase. It would take a while before we would see a gradual slump emerge on the demand for raw materials, as the overall slump in global demand for finished products would slowly push purchasing managers to cut back their requirements.
This all sounds like a dire scenario indeed and most would be in angst as to the actual probability of such a series of events pulling through, especially given that we have only just started to see a favourable environment emerge in terms of global trade. The general thought and hope for the time being is that to some degree the US President will back down having been brought to his senses in a similar fashion to how back in the early 2000’s George W Bush eventually backed down on his protectionist steel-tariff plan. Lets hope things aren’t taken too far too quickly and we miss the point of no return.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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