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Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of sell offs in the technology sector.
According to George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping, at the face of it, it may well sound as if this is something restricted to an industry which is disconnected in its most part from the shipping industry. However, in part these tremors being noted in the form of price drops in equities are tied in part to the overall friction being seen in global trade. It has been just over two weeks since US President Donald Trump announced import tariffs on steel and aluminum, and the geopolitical aftershocks are still being felt. The period just after the announcement seems to be mainly characterized by a number of countries, including but not limited to Australia, the European Union and Japan, pushing to win exemptions from these newly announced tariffs. Yet, things seem to be taking a darker tone now, with a number of these countries now vowing to act through reprisal levies and tariffs on US imports.
George Lazaridis further noted that, as an overall read-through, the main note that most of us in shipping have taken is that these current tariffs have a limited direct effect on shipping markets. China, which is the leading producer of both these commodities has a minute share in the overall imports entering the US, despite the fact that the US President has focused on China in his usual populist rhetoric with regards to trade. China’s exports of steel and aluminum to the US amount to only just 0.03% of its GDP, while it only makes up around 4% of total steel imports into the US. The biggest threat has been to the US market’s main suppliers, which are the European Union, Canada, S. Korea, Mexico, Brazil and Japan, with Canada and Mexico having for the moment escaped the current levies as part of the ongoing negotiations with regards to the NAFTA trade agreement.
George Lazaridis Allied noted that, the majority of the rest seem to be taking the option of retaliatory levies quite seriously, while despite China being relatively unaffected for the time being, they have also joined in the general discussion proactively, possibly taking this opportunity to proclaim themselves as defenders of free trade.
The risk of a wider trade war sparking off does lay in the realm of possibility right now, yet even if things were to escalate to such a level, the negative effects on shipping would most likely come in the form of gradual waves. Under such a scenario we would likely see most retaliatory tariffs and levies being placed on finished final goods, possibly causing a disturbance on the containership market first and limited to mainly this sector in the initial phase. It would take a while before we would see a gradual slump emerge on the demand for raw materials, as the overall slump in global demand for finished products would slowly push purchasing managers to cut back their requirements.
This all sounds like a dire scenario indeed and most would be in angst as to the actual probability of such a series of events pulling through, especially given that we have only just started to see a favourable environment emerge in terms of global trade. The general thought and hope for the time being is that to some degree the US President will back down having been brought to his senses in a similar fashion to how back in the early 2000’s George W Bush eventually backed down on his protectionist steel-tariff plan. Lets hope things aren’t taken too far too quickly and we miss the point of no return.
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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Planning Commission, India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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