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Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of sell offs in the technology sector.
According to George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping, at the face of it, it may well sound as if this is something restricted to an industry which is disconnected in its most part from the shipping industry. However, in part these tremors being noted in the form of price drops in equities are tied in part to the overall friction being seen in global trade. It has been just over two weeks since US President Donald Trump announced import tariffs on steel and aluminum, and the geopolitical aftershocks are still being felt. The period just after the announcement seems to be mainly characterized by a number of countries, including but not limited to Australia, the European Union and Japan, pushing to win exemptions from these newly announced tariffs. Yet, things seem to be taking a darker tone now, with a number of these countries now vowing to act through reprisal levies and tariffs on US imports.
George Lazaridis further noted that, as an overall read-through, the main note that most of us in shipping have taken is that these current tariffs have a limited direct effect on shipping markets. China, which is the leading producer of both these commodities has a minute share in the overall imports entering the US, despite the fact that the US President has focused on China in his usual populist rhetoric with regards to trade. China’s exports of steel and aluminum to the US amount to only just 0.03% of its GDP, while it only makes up around 4% of total steel imports into the US. The biggest threat has been to the US market’s main suppliers, which are the European Union, Canada, S. Korea, Mexico, Brazil and Japan, with Canada and Mexico having for the moment escaped the current levies as part of the ongoing negotiations with regards to the NAFTA trade agreement.
George Lazaridis Allied noted that, the majority of the rest seem to be taking the option of retaliatory levies quite seriously, while despite China being relatively unaffected for the time being, they have also joined in the general discussion proactively, possibly taking this opportunity to proclaim themselves as defenders of free trade.
The risk of a wider trade war sparking off does lay in the realm of possibility right now, yet even if things were to escalate to such a level, the negative effects on shipping would most likely come in the form of gradual waves. Under such a scenario we would likely see most retaliatory tariffs and levies being placed on finished final goods, possibly causing a disturbance on the containership market first and limited to mainly this sector in the initial phase. It would take a while before we would see a gradual slump emerge on the demand for raw materials, as the overall slump in global demand for finished products would slowly push purchasing managers to cut back their requirements.
This all sounds like a dire scenario indeed and most would be in angst as to the actual probability of such a series of events pulling through, especially given that we have only just started to see a favourable environment emerge in terms of global trade. The general thought and hope for the time being is that to some degree the US President will back down having been brought to his senses in a similar fashion to how back in the early 2000’s George W Bush eventually backed down on his protectionist steel-tariff plan. Lets hope things aren’t taken too far too quickly and we miss the point of no return.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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