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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 02 March 18
ANGLO AMERICAN COMPLETES SALE OF ESKOM-TIED THERMAL COAL OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) confirms completion of the sale of its Eskom-tied domestic thermal coal operations in South Afric ...
Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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