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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 12 July 17
COAL HAS CONTINUED A STELLAR RUN OVER THE PAST YEAR GAINING ~10% OVER THE PAST QUARTER AND ~41% OVER THE PAST YEAR - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Having just passed the second quarter of 2017, it is interesting to take a look at the performance of the commodity market and how certain commodit ...
Monday, 10 July 17
A ROLLERCOASTER YEAR FOR COAL PRICES; ICPR ROSE 4.62% M/M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price rose 4.62% in July, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal c ...
Monday, 10 July 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SHOWS A NEGATIVE TREND WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market decline this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Cape indexes show a negative trend week over week ...
Friday, 07 July 17
SHOULD WE BE AVOIDING GENERAL AVERAGE? - ALEX KEMP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Calls for general average to be abolished are nearly as old as the regime itself. A representative of Lloyd’s atten ...
Friday, 07 July 17
EIA ESTIMATES SHOW U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 1.7 PERCENT
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.9 million short tonn ...
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Showing 2006 to 2010 news of total 6871 |
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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