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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 03 October 17
ALLIED MARKET ANALYSIS
It seems as though the future of the oil trade was once again put into the spotlight, as the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference took place last week ...
Friday, 29 September 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DROPS FOR THE FIFTH WEEK IN A ROW, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.7 million short ...
Thursday, 28 September 17
SUPRAMAX: S.CHINA TRIP TO INDIA HAS BEEN FIXED AT AROUND US$ 11000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The hot market seen the last weeks in the Pacific has softened as the Golden week holiday in China approaches and the October shipments ...
Thursday, 28 September 17
THE 'UNREASONABLE' COST OF CASUALTY REPAIRS: ASSOCIATION OF AVERAGE ADJUSTERS CHAIRMAN DETAILS CLAIMS DILEMMAS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ‘unreasonable’ cost of casualty repairs: Association of Average Adjusters chairman details claims dilemma ...
Thursday, 28 September 17
CHINESE GOVERNMENT TO CANCEL DOMESTIC IRON ORE MINING RIGHTS - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
It has been reported that China will cancel roughly one third of its iron ore mining licenses, says Commodore Research & Consultancy in its lat ...
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Showing 1926 to 1930 news of total 6871 |
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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