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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 07 December 17
SUPRAMAX: CHINA TO INDIA FIXING AT MID US$ 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
There has been quite some activity in the Atlantic basin this week, rates out of USG are still firm, trips to Emed gone through at low/m ...
Thursday, 07 December 17
THE ROLE OF COAL - AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH - BENJAMIN SPORTON, WCA
At the climate talks in Bonn, a global alliance to phase out coal was launched. This, along with other rhetoric about developments in the energy se ...
Wednesday, 06 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS VASILEIOU
Moving towards the end of 2017, we are facing a relatively slack period of business in the ship repair sector. The repair market has already mature ...
Tuesday, 05 December 17
DOES BITCOIN HAVE A FUTURE IN SHIPPING? - ALIBRA SHIPPING
Google now receives more search requests for Bitcoin than for Kim Kardashian, Beyoncé and Taylor Swift combined. This week, a shipping compa ...
Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The cu ...
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Showing 1856 to 1860 news of total 6871 |
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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