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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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