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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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