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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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