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Wednesday, 31 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Days before the celebrations of the Lunar New Year, the dry bulk market seems to be holding well, against negative predictions. Period numbers reported are close to last done levels and despite the pressure in the beginning of the month, the spot market also seems to be resisting a further drop during the past week. All this has helped S&P activity to stay rather strong during a time when Buyers traditionally remain on the sidelines.
But even if 2018 ends up being a good year overall for the dry bulk market or even better than 2017; how long can this last?
Don't get me wrong, I am not expecting a collapse or a blood bath. After the lengthy period during which the massive orderbook had been casting a shadow over earnings and chocking any efforts for recovery, the market seems to have finally started reaching a balance and by this I mean that we are finally heading towards a cyclical behavior of transparent highs and lows.
Now in regards to the duration of those ups and downs, this is yet to be seen but nonetheless a more predictable or at least foreseeable market is something that ship owners, charterers and yards would love to experience again after many years of uncertainty.
We have witnessed rather short cycles in the tanker market with highs and lows being fully developed in a span of 34-44 months. But as far as tankers are concerned, we have also seen a solid differentiation between the crude and product market. It is not wrong to even talk about two different markets instead of unifying them under a single tanker market.
The shorter cycles have caused shrinkage of the duration of any windows for buying low or selling high. It is not unreasonable to expect that the dry bulk market will eventually start to show similar patterns if the aforementioned balance occurs.
It is hard to say if any specific dry bulk size segments that are highly dependable on very specific/limited number of cargoes will form sub-markets that will affect respectively asset values independently from the course of the sector as a whole as it has been the case for tankers. For example product cargo vessels have retained a more stable residual value (especially in the case of assets younger than 11 years) compared the crude carrying ships whose values appeared to be way more volatile.
But this it not the main concern or question of this insight. The main point is that a return to a more cyclical market will indeed require better reflexes on behalf of investors when it comes to placing money into either second hand or newbuilding assets.
This will put pressure to investors to have cash or finance easily accessible when opportunities arise. How will this influence the overall ship-owing land scape is yet to be seen. All of the above is pure speculation. For what is worth, we might be in the doorstep of another super cycle that will last more than 4 years. Time will tell.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 March 18
ANGLO AMERICAN COMPLETES SALE OF ESKOM-TIED THERMAL COAL OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) confirms completion of the sale of its Eskom-tied domestic thermal coal operations in South Afric ...
Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the Inte ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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