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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Wednesday, 21 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2017 proved to be a relatively good year with positive margins for the Dry Bulk market. Especially during the last quarter of the year everyone can ...
Tuesday, 20 February 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORT RISES BY 12 PER CENT TO 18 MILLION TONNES IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal import increased by 12.4 per cent to 18.49 million tonnes (MT) in January, against 16.
44 MT in the same month of the ...
Monday, 19 February 18
JOINT INSURANCE - WHY SHOULD YOU CARE? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is neither controversial nor new to say that co-assureds under a joint insurance policy cannot claim against each othe ...
Friday, 16 February 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DOWN 4.5 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Thursday, 15 February 18
INDIA: THERMAL POWER PLANTS UNDER STRESS ON RISING COAL, FREIGHT COSTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal-based power plants are feeling the heat of spike in thermal grade coal prices and railway freight costs.
Prices of thermal grade coal sin ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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