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Tuesday, 22 September 09
PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION MAY AID COLOMBIA COAL TO ASIA


* Colombia producers hope for growth in Asia shipments
* Panama Canal will allow smaller coal Capesize vessels
* Australia, Indonesia to remain biggest Asia coal suppliers


Reuters reported that, Colombian coal exporters will seek to take advantage of booming demand in Asia when the Panama Canal expansion is completed in 2013, shipping analysts and Colombian coal producers say.

Colombia, the world's fifth-largest exporter of steam coal, has been hit by falling demand in key European and the U.S. markets, and has been the only producing country unable to sell into Asia due to high freight costs

"They (producers) potentially could be shipping out coal from Colombia across the Pacific. Obviously it would depend on the size of ship and how they develop this canal," said Will Fray, shipping analyst with London-based consultants Maritime Strategies International (MSI).

Colombia is expected to export around 61 million tonnes of coal in 2009, roughly on a par with Russia and South Africa but below Indonesia and Australia.

"The big thing about Colombian coal is it was competing in Europe with South African business, which at the moment has been moving eastwards," Fray added.
The Panama Canal Authority will spend $5.25 billion to expand and deepen the Panama Canal enabling larger bulk vessels and oil tankers to move commodities into the Pacific markets

"The expansion will make it more possible in theory for Colombian coal to move to Asia but there are many factors which make it unlikely to be shipped in large quantities," said a major Colombian producer who declined to be named.

"It's far more likely that South African coal will remain cheaper than Colombian for the Asian market outside of India and that production in Australia and Indonesia will grow to meet any increased local demand," the producer said.

The biggest Colombian producers, including Drummond Coal, Cerrejon and Prodeco, do not expect to be making significant inroads into Asia but see some opportunities for spot sales.

Brazilian energy company MPX Energia remains optimistic, however, that it will be able to sell coal into Asia via the expanded Canal

"The expansion will allow coal shippers to use small capesize vessels of 130,000-140,000 tonnes rather than panamaxes of around half that size. There are always savings when using larger ships," said Peter Norfolk, Director of Consultancy & Research at shipbrokers Simon, Spence and Young (SSY).

"But it's unlikely that exports from Colombia into the Pacific will increase significantly because growth in demand there is more likely to be met by production from nearby producers in Australia and Indonesia," he said.

Thermal coal is shipped globally in capesize vessels of 120,000-150,000 tonnes, panamax vessels of around 65,000-75,000 tonnes and handymax vessels of 45,000-50,000 tonnes.

Asian buyers in China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan who can discharge cheaper capesize vessels will do so. Indian buyers are forced to use mostly handymaxes because there are few ports which can accept panamaxes and only one which can take capes.
Source: Reuters



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