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Wednesday, 14 June 17
HANDYSIZES AND PANAMAXES ENJOY THE TIGHTEST SUPPLY - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
IntermodalThe dry and the tanker shipping segments have dissimilar exposure to supply-driven opportunity (or risk). While the vintage (i.e., over 15 years old) fleet is similar for both segments being shy one-fifth of their respective fleets, the dry bulk order book is at a historical low, while the crude one has grown alarmingly fast.

In dry bulk, Handysizes and Panamaxes enjoy the tightest supply. Their vintage fleets are somewhat less than a quarter of their total fleets while their order books are only about 7% of their fleet. There is ample fleet renewal potential with the overage fleet being more than threefold the order book. Only Capesizes exhibit a rather younger fleet with just one tenth of the fleet being over 15 years old and fleet renewal metric approaching parity.

Oil tankers are another story. Distressingly, the Panamax/LR1 order book exceeds the vintage fleet. Aframaxes/Lr2s, Suezmaxes, and VLCCs have about 15% of their fleets on order with the order book of the latter just hitting 100 vessels. Only MR tankers are an exception exhibiting the lowest order book (shy 9% of the fleet) and a renewal ratio of over 2 overaged units for each unit on order.

To conclude, notwithstanding the volatility, the world fleet’s utilization ratio is a mere 80-85%. The world fleet is getting younger while average Vessel’s size larger. Vintage S&P prices will decline further as Vessels’ economic lives shorten. Regulations (and incentives?) will be a strong demolition force over the next years. However, risks still remain on the demand side with an aging economy of retiring consumers, an increasingly services-oriented growth, the plateauing of offshoring, and renewable energy competing with fossil fuels, the latter being the raison d'être of international shipping.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker


Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.


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