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Wednesday, 07 June 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
Intermodal2017 undoubtedly began with very optimistic signs for the future of the Oil & Gas industry on the back of the Vienna Agreement. OPEC and non-OPEC producing countries in November 2016 decided to curtail oil output jointly and ease the global glut after more than two years of persisting low prices that overstretched many economies a big part of which depends on oil production. This long-awaited strategic approach after a long period during which oil prices where trading under $50/bbl – and sometimes even below $30/bbl, was aiming in steadying and eventually strengthening oil prices, which in turn would offer the chance for new offshore Oil & Gas exploration projects to kick off, mainly during the second half of the year.

With the first half of the year ending in a few weeks’ time, we can say that this agreement was successful up to a point, as oil prices have more or less stabilized at around $50-55/bbl up from around $45-50/bbl. The partly successful results have led to a new agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC countries to extend the output cut for further nine months, in other words until the end of March next year.

The fact that the market has finally started to show stability signs, after the beginning of the collapse in oil prices that kicked off in the summer of 2014, as well as that oil producing countries, are jointly working together to successfully support prices and appear committed to keep doing so until that happens, is a positive message for all those currently involved in the industry as well as potential investors.  However and unfortunately so, the Offshore Support Vessel (OSV) market still suffers from oversupply in all types of offshore units. This together with slow demand and lack of profitable offshore projects has had a few significant drawbacks in the industry. Charter rates have reached breakeven levels more than a few times, more than 350,000 industry workers have been led off so far, around 100 offshore units (including resales) are laid up at the moment, big offshore groups have been merging in order to survive and many shipowners have been trying to restructure their loans in order to keep operating.

It is a fact that all those firms involved in the oil & gas exploration industries have been facing a particularly challenging couple of years, focusing exclusively on staying afloat until oil prices and demand recover to a point where the environment of operation becomes attractive again. Surviving during this period has been made possible throughout a number of ways such as the immediate cut of expenses, which comprises of laying up vessels and/or selling older units as well as new and improved business models which include mergers and alliances together with the entry of new technologies that can improve the performance and operation of these models. Lastly, we witness that even the selection of specialized employees is now a process that is taking place with much more diligence than before.

As far as the eventual recovery of the market is concerned, it looks like in the next months we will continue to witness positive sings. Indeed, we have so far seen improved activity in many regions with regards to ocean towages/rigs/exploration projects, which make us hopeful that we have ‘reached’ the bottom and that going forward there is only one way to go and this is up. Saying that, the speed in which the recovery will be reached will determine how many additional “casualties” this crisis will have, with chances of many offshore vessels re-entering lay-up status and some of them, especially the really old ones being sold for demolition.
By Panos Makrinos 
Offshore Director

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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