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Tuesday, 30 May 17
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Despite the fair performance that has been noted in the Chinese economy over the past 5 months, we have started to see an increase in the skepticism and fear as to the upcoming prospects of the world’s second largest economy. In part the majority of this emerging sentiment has to do with some of the most recent figures coming out of China with regards to its imports, urging many to take further weight onto the idea that the recent tightening of financing and clearing out of excesses by the government has likely starting to lead to a further slowdown that has only just started to show face, said George Lazaridis of Allied Shipping in his latest weekly report.
Furthermore, it seems as though many have rushed to embrace this as a scenario, feeding with their preconceptions that the excessive debt problem in China and the bubble effects they have been mentioning several times over the past years in terms of real estate and financial markets have started to play their part.
Allied Shipping’s analyst further noted that often with these latter preconceptions is the connection with what we have seen historically in other emerging markets in the past and the most usual comparison is that of the course we witnessed back in the 1980’s in Japan’s economy. With the number of similarities now increasing even further as to how Japan’s economy failed before the bubble collapsed and the figures coming out of China today. China just like Japan back then, is now the world’s second-largest economy, supplying just over 20% of US imports (just as Japan did back in the 80’s) and providing 40 percent of the global economy’s annual growth. More importantly, many of the similarities relate to the debt held, with China’s total debt now holding at 2505 of GDP and non-financial corporate debt-to-GDP ratio reaching a total of 155%. To many the similarities are too great, confirming their affirmation that China’s economic behavior as a bubble-like market is unlikely to end well.
The analyst further said in his report, there are however some very notable differences. Chinese investment outside of China has not been limited to snapping up of western real estate and large corporations. Being an economy largely directed by its government with firm planning, there has been a great deal of investment that has taken place which is more in line with the policies undertaken by the United States in the start of the 20th Century, with a focus on securing raw resources as well as helping to beef up satellite emerging markets that could prove to be future consumers of its large-scale exports. At the same time, a large percentage of its economy is still in the grips of the government, as such allowing for more gradual smoothing and corrections to be made rather than a full out bubble burst. Obviously, this hasn’t always worked perfectly as the collapse of its stock market bubble in 2015 testifies. It seems as though there is a whole lot of investment being undertaken that has yet to bear fruits from which a more stable picture of the Chinese economy can emerge, yet as you look at the course of its market’s focus over the past 10 years, it has shown an ability to maneuver its targets and focus and find sources of growth beyond just the major developed economies such as the U.S. and Europe.
For the time being there has been a slowdown compared to the record production and import levels that were being noted earlier in the year, yet its engine of growth seems to still have plenty more momentum to go on at least for the near-term. Even if these fears are founded, it does not seem to be something of major concern, for now, he concluded.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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