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Tuesday, 30 May 17
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Despite the fair performance that has been noted in the Chinese economy over the past 5 months, we have started to see an increase in the skepticism and fear as to the upcoming prospects of the world’s second largest economy. In part the majority of this emerging sentiment has to do with some of the most recent figures coming out of China with regards to its imports, urging many to take further weight onto the idea that the recent tightening of financing and clearing out of excesses by the government has likely starting to lead to a further slowdown that has only just started to show face, said George Lazaridis of Allied Shipping in his latest weekly report.
Furthermore, it seems as though many have rushed to embrace this as a scenario, feeding with their preconceptions that the excessive debt problem in China and the bubble effects they have been mentioning several times over the past years in terms of real estate and financial markets have started to play their part.
Allied Shipping’s analyst further noted that often with these latter preconceptions is the connection with what we have seen historically in other emerging markets in the past and the most usual comparison is that of the course we witnessed back in the 1980’s in Japan’s economy. With the number of similarities now increasing even further as to how Japan’s economy failed before the bubble collapsed and the figures coming out of China today. China just like Japan back then, is now the world’s second-largest economy, supplying just over 20% of US imports (just as Japan did back in the 80’s) and providing 40 percent of the global economy’s annual growth. More importantly, many of the similarities relate to the debt held, with China’s total debt now holding at 2505 of GDP and non-financial corporate debt-to-GDP ratio reaching a total of 155%. To many the similarities are too great, confirming their affirmation that China’s economic behavior as a bubble-like market is unlikely to end well.
The analyst further said in his report, there are however some very notable differences. Chinese investment outside of China has not been limited to snapping up of western real estate and large corporations. Being an economy largely directed by its government with firm planning, there has been a great deal of investment that has taken place which is more in line with the policies undertaken by the United States in the start of the 20th Century, with a focus on securing raw resources as well as helping to beef up satellite emerging markets that could prove to be future consumers of its large-scale exports. At the same time, a large percentage of its economy is still in the grips of the government, as such allowing for more gradual smoothing and corrections to be made rather than a full out bubble burst. Obviously, this hasn’t always worked perfectly as the collapse of its stock market bubble in 2015 testifies. It seems as though there is a whole lot of investment being undertaken that has yet to bear fruits from which a more stable picture of the Chinese economy can emerge, yet as you look at the course of its market’s focus over the past 10 years, it has shown an ability to maneuver its targets and focus and find sources of growth beyond just the major developed economies such as the U.S. and Europe.
For the time being there has been a slowdown compared to the record production and import levels that were being noted earlier in the year, yet its engine of growth seems to still have plenty more momentum to go on at least for the near-term. Even if these fears are founded, it does not seem to be something of major concern, for now, he concluded.
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Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
High inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax
A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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