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Tuesday, 30 May 17
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Despite the fair performance that has been noted in the Chinese economy over the past 5 months, we have started to see an increase in the skepticism and fear as to the upcoming prospects of the world’s second largest economy. In part the majority of this emerging sentiment has to do with some of the most recent figures coming out of China with regards to its imports, urging many to take further weight onto the idea that the recent tightening of financing and clearing out of excesses by the government has likely starting to lead to a further slowdown that has only just started to show face, said George Lazaridis of Allied Shipping in his latest weekly report.
Furthermore, it seems as though many have rushed to embrace this as a scenario, feeding with their preconceptions that the excessive debt problem in China and the bubble effects they have been mentioning several times over the past years in terms of real estate and financial markets have started to play their part.
Allied Shipping’s analyst further noted that often with these latter preconceptions is the connection with what we have seen historically in other emerging markets in the past and the most usual comparison is that of the course we witnessed back in the 1980’s in Japan’s economy. With the number of similarities now increasing even further as to how Japan’s economy failed before the bubble collapsed and the figures coming out of China today. China just like Japan back then, is now the world’s second-largest economy, supplying just over 20% of US imports (just as Japan did back in the 80’s) and providing 40 percent of the global economy’s annual growth. More importantly, many of the similarities relate to the debt held, with China’s total debt now holding at 2505 of GDP and non-financial corporate debt-to-GDP ratio reaching a total of 155%. To many the similarities are too great, confirming their affirmation that China’s economic behavior as a bubble-like market is unlikely to end well.
The analyst further said in his report, there are however some very notable differences. Chinese investment outside of China has not been limited to snapping up of western real estate and large corporations. Being an economy largely directed by its government with firm planning, there has been a great deal of investment that has taken place which is more in line with the policies undertaken by the United States in the start of the 20th Century, with a focus on securing raw resources as well as helping to beef up satellite emerging markets that could prove to be future consumers of its large-scale exports. At the same time, a large percentage of its economy is still in the grips of the government, as such allowing for more gradual smoothing and corrections to be made rather than a full out bubble burst. Obviously, this hasn’t always worked perfectly as the collapse of its stock market bubble in 2015 testifies. It seems as though there is a whole lot of investment being undertaken that has yet to bear fruits from which a more stable picture of the Chinese economy can emerge, yet as you look at the course of its market’s focus over the past 10 years, it has shown an ability to maneuver its targets and focus and find sources of growth beyond just the major developed economies such as the U.S. and Europe.
For the time being there has been a slowdown compared to the record production and import levels that were being noted earlier in the year, yet its engine of growth seems to still have plenty more momentum to go on at least for the near-term. Even if these fears are founded, it does not seem to be something of major concern, for now, he concluded.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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