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Tuesday, 23 May 17
TANKERS WEEKLY MARKET NOTE - ALLIED
PanamaxIt’s been a turbulent couple of weeks on the oil front, with the effectiveness of OPEC’s policy being under debate amongst most traders and funds and the price of the commodity itself lacking any clear direction.

According to Allied Shipping’s weekly market report, the major push made in the autumn of 2016 to curb the glut being noted in the global crude oil market has helped to somewhat push prices back up above the US$ 50 mark, but however has shown inability to be able to drive prices to levels considerably higher. On the one hand the promises made by each of the oil producers that entered the agreement were relatively minor, while at the same time growth in oil consumption is still lacking any serious momentum.

George Lazaridis Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations of Allied noted that, in terms of this latter point efficiencies in oil consumption have played a major role, with the world’s largest consumers per capita, namely the U.S. and Europe having significantly improved their oil consumption efficiency since 2007 as such drastically reducing their import requirements. Adding further pain to these efficiency related drops, shale production in the U.S. has made equivalent strides, slowly allowing the world’s largest oil consumer to become completely self-reliant during the past couple of years.

He further noted, during the same period emerging markets have been providing considerable support to push demand for this energy commodity up. The biggest portion of this fresh demand that has managed to more than counter the drop in demand being noted in the West has been China. To a similar extent India has also been playing catch up over the past couple of years, though still well behind compared to the rest in terms of its total oil consumption. But in the case of India is where the oil market sees the greatest potential for new demand in the years ahead, having one of the world’s largest populations and with its oil consumption per capita being so low, even when taking the extra efficiency gains that could be achieved, there is still a strong upside potential to note from this market.

Allied shipping analyst said, beyond the demand fundamentals, focus right now is more so on the immediate future of this market and with global demand having been unable to show great strides in the short-term, traders and funds are putting their focus more so on what’s going on, on the supply side. We are seeing more and more indications that the current output cut program put forward by OPEC will likely be extended in duration and likely with commitments towards deeper output cuts by each of the oil producers. On the back of this prevailing sentiment is the recent bullish movements in pricing, though still not showing the strong confidence that most would like to see from this market.

Much of this has been heavily reflected in recent months in the tanker market and more specifically in the larger crude oil carriers. The lack of heavy monthly programs and fresh demand has pushed freight rates into yet another downward correction with most all size segments showing a considerably worse performance then what they were showing during the same time period last year. It’s hard to see right now were strong gains could be noted in order to really drive the market forward and even positive fundamentals such as those discussed early in regards to India seem to be more focused on the long-term and are not likely to really make a deference closer to now. At the same time it is hard to see a balance being struck in this market, with higher oil prices being good for the oil producers but likely to play a role in stifling demand and possible driving up the game on energy efficiency further. 


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