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Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IntermodalUp until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in May 2015. But over the past few weeks, the scene has completely changed. There is an apparent lack of demolition candidates, while demo prices in the Indian subcontinent have lost over $30/ldt on average during the same period. Bangladesh and Pakistan were competing quite strongly offering a small premium over India’s Alang prices. However, the recent heavy decline in local steel plate prices has forced most end buyers to reduce their offering price.

In view of the restocking ahead of the monsoon season in late May –June and the annual budgets in Pakistan and Bangladesh during the same period, we remain to see if rumors of any new duties/taxes will come into effect for the respective domestic ship-recycling sectors, and how such developments will affect scrap buyers appetite.

We have to keep in mind that at the moment only Bangladesh and India can cut gas free and clean for hot works tanker vessels, as after the fatal accidents that took place in Pakistan earlier this year, there is still a total ban on the demolition of all wet units in the country.

Scrap prices are mainly dictated by steel demand and steel prices and these are subsequently affected by iron ore commodity prices. Iron ore prices had climbed from below $60/ton in Oct 2016 to approximately $96/ton in February this year. Since then, the price of the commodity has constantly dropped to settle at low $60/ton levels and at the end of last week when a full-scale retreat took place, with futures in China, Dalian Iron Ore witnessing a limit down on investor concern in regards to demand outlook.

It seems that the deleveraging of China's $4 trillion shadow banking system just accelerated massively as Bank Wealth Product Issuance crashed 15% month-over-month. With stocks and bonds already plunging, commodities joined the decline that came after tightened regulation on macro-prudential assessment and interbank business. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, there is still room for iron ore to decline further amid oversupply with imports and port stockpiles remaining at high levels that further support oversupply.

Over the past months, Capes and Panamaxes freight rates increased significantly by demand for more shipments, together with record steel production in China, and that has helped boost stockpiles at local ports. After peaking at a record 132.5 million tons in March, stockpiles have held near that level, according to Shanghai Steelhome E-Commerce Co.

Since the end of March though the BCI has lost more than 1,100 points and the average earnings quoted by the Baltic Exchange have dropped from $20,650/day to $12,446/day today. Is it time to panic? The reality is that we are still way above the $1,985/day the big bulkers were earning in March 2016, but signs are indicating a slowdown in demand that inevitably always leads to pressure on earnings. As we are all waiting to see how long will this pressure last, all hopes for sustained positive sentiment in the dry bulk market have now been placed on the grains trade that could potentially make up for some of the lost momentum due to the slowdown Capesizes are currently witnessing.
By John N. Cotzias 
SnP Broker

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.


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