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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Friday, 01 July 16
BREXIT SET TO HURT SHIPPING IN THE LONG-TERM AS IT WILL TAKE ITS TOLL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY'S GROWTH - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Setting aside the short-term negative impact of the Brexit, in terms of stock market and currency volatility, it’s more than evident that the ...
Friday, 01 July 16
U.S'S COAL EXPORTS HAVE DECLINED FOR TWELVE QUARTERS IN A ROW - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.7 million short t ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
CAPE - THIS WEEK'S FREIGHT AND ACTIVITY LEVEL HAVE KEPT STABLE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
This week’s freight and activity level have kept stable. It is support at the present levels and despite a volatile market the freight ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
OIL PRODUCT TANKERS EARNINGS DECLINE AS STOCKBUILDING SLOWS DOWN - BIMCO
BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is stil ...
Wednesday, 29 June 16
THE DRY BULK INDICES, OPPOSITE TO MOST GLOBAL MARKET INDICES, ROSE END OF LAST WEEK
Last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the begi ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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