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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Thursday, 04 August 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES ARE STARTING TO ZOOM HIGHER; HBA ROSE 10.13% TO US$ 58.37 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since August 2015.
The Director General of Mineral and Coa ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
BREXIT: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL SHIPPING AND SEA TRADE - EVERSHEDS
The buzzword for the post-Brexit landscape both in Europe and further afield is ‘uncertainty’. No-one really knows the long term effect ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
RECAAP INFORMATION SHARING CENTRE ISSUES SPECIAL REPORT ON THE ABDUCTING OF CREW FROM SHIPS IN WATERS OFF EASTERN SABAH AND SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the light of three incidents where the crew of tug boats were abducted in the waters off Eastern Sabah and Southern Ph ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its glob ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIP TRADING AND ORDERING CLOSE TO A STALEMATE AS SUMMER LULL KICKS IN
With newbuilding activity already at a near standstill since the start of the year, most of 2016’s trading activity in shipping was evident i ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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