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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE INDONESIAN DRAFT NEW MINING LAW - AMENDMENTS TO THE 2009 MINING LAW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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