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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Monday, 29 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY AND FIRM THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 18.74%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 26 August 16
WEEKLY US COAL OUTPUT UP 0.7% W/W TO 16 MMST: EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Thursday, 25 August 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF $9000
Supramax
Due to Chinese coal imports which continues to source much of the tonnage in SE Asia combined with a good flow of mineral exports ex Aus ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
MARKET INSIGHT
Brazil and the world bid farewell on Sunday to the first Olympic Games in South America in the midst of a finale meant to be both one last bash and ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
DRY BULK VESSELS FACE CONTINUED DISTRESS - CLEAR ASSET
Dry bulk vessels have faced extreme distress in recent years. With a combination of factors including newer vessels being ordered with up to 5-year ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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