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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
Friday, 24 February 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED AT 16.8 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 February 17
ULTRA SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA IS GETTING AROUND $10-11K BASIS SINGAPORE DELIVERY
Supramax
The week started off quietly in the Atlantic with more activity in the Pacific basin.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, frontha ...
Wednesday, 22 February 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
In 2016 a session of the IMO committee in London, set the new prerequisites effective from January 2020, which will necessitate global Sulphur cont ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
INDIA'S JANUARY COAL IMPORTS DECLINE 21.7 PERCENT YEAR -ON-YEAR TO 14.31 MT - PTI
Coal imports declined by 21.7 per cent to 14.31 million tonnes in January as the power utilities did not lift much fuel due to abundant stock avail ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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