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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
Friday, 24 February 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED AT 16.8 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 February 17
ULTRA SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA IS GETTING AROUND $10-11K BASIS SINGAPORE DELIVERY
Supramax
The week started off quietly in the Atlantic with more activity in the Pacific basin.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, frontha ...
Wednesday, 22 February 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
In 2016 a session of the IMO committee in London, set the new prerequisites effective from January 2020, which will necessitate global Sulphur cont ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
INDIA'S JANUARY COAL IMPORTS DECLINE 21.7 PERCENT YEAR -ON-YEAR TO 14.31 MT - PTI
Coal imports declined by 21.7 per cent to 14.31 million tonnes in January as the power utilities did not lift much fuel due to abundant stock avail ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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