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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Friday, 12 May 17
SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET
Supramax
In the Atlantic, only USG were showing some improvement, where pet-coke cargoes to India was fixed in the range of 19-23k daily and to C ...
Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in ...
Tuesday, 09 May 17
DRY BULK TRADE IS STILL HEAVILY RELIANT ON CHINA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have seen an overall cool down in the dry bulk and tanker markets over the final two weeks of April, sparking worries amongst ship-owners that t ...
Monday, 08 May 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose in May, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian therm ...
Monday, 08 May 17
OCEAN BULK CARGO RATES FALL FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, with all segments show a negative downward trend week over week.
The Balti ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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