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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
IntermodalRemember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.

As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?

Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.

Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.

In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”. 


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Recent News

Wednesday, 22 November 17
THERMAL COAL WAS FLAT AMID CONCERNS OF FURTHER GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN CHINA, SAYS DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were mixed. Thermal coal was flat amid concerns of further government intervention in China, said Daniel Hynes Senior Commodity Strateg ...


Wednesday, 22 November 17
CHINA CONSUMES MORE THAN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE IRON ORE MARKET; PRODUCES AS MUCH STEEL AS THE REST OF THE WORLD COMBINED - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
China consumes more than two-thirds of the global seaborne iron ore market and at the same time produces as much steel as the rest of the world com ...


Monday, 20 November 17
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE SURGES 0.86% TO $94.80 A TON, GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price surges 0.86% in November compared to declared price in October, the latest ministerial decree showed. ...


Friday, 17 November 17
U.S. PRODUCED 678.8 MMST OF COAL YEAR TO DATE; 9% UP Y/Y, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.8 million short ton ...


Thursday, 16 November 17
PANAMAX ACTIVITIES HAVE SLOWED DOWN QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY THE LAST WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Supramax Another week with rates easing over all the Supra routes within Atlantic. Front hauls from USG got payed around 21-22k daily and ul ...


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