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Tuesday, 24 January 17
MARKET UPDATE - ALLIED
AlliedThis week at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos we had a historic first via the attendance and speech given by China’s president Xi Jinping. By the very fact that China’s leader choose to attend this year event and taking from the underlining theme presented by his speech, it is now more clear than ever that the world’s focus has been set on the future course that global trade will take from here on out.

His message was clear, “No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war”, while also pointing out his commitment that China would “keep its door wide open”. Of course these comments where carefully and tactfully made to reinforce the view of China’s leading role in trade and further enhance its image as “standing tall” and playing its responsible part on the world stage. This position is in line with what many in the shipping industry would approve of, given that shipping (especially trade sectors such as that of dry bulk and tankers) is highly dependent on the business that the world’s largest economy in Asia and one of the largest in the world generates every year, said George Lazaridis Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations of Allied shipping in his weekly report.

According to George Lazaridis for many years now the industry has become highly reliant on China for both its import requirements and large volume of exports. With its key position as the biggest importer of dry bulk commodities in the world and by a big margin, its appetite in any given month dictates the course the freight market takes. A slowdown in import requirements is felt swiftly in terms of rates and by this regard it is by no surprise that for more than a decade now the market shows bigger demand slumps during holydays in the Far East (such as the Chinese New Year) rather than from holidays in the West (such as Christmas and New Year).

He further noted that, the industrial powerhouse keeps trade moving and though the West may well be threatening to change this status quo in the words spoken by its politicians, it seems as though any such move would be to the benefit of no one. A war on trade openness would be the last thing we need right now, as its consequence could easily trigger a slump in markets across the world as each nation takes retaliatory steps. That’s not to say that trade is working fine as it is now, as we wouldn’t have such an increase in discontent noted in the U.S., Europe as well as in other parts of the world.

The focus however needs to be prioritized on the key industries where the West still holds a competitive advantage rather than paying out pointless subsidies, putting up trade barriers and increasing import regulations in order to “beef up” parts of its economy which are not viable both in terms of cost and productivity. At the same time we need to see less FOREX manipulation as well as less government involvement in the emerging economies so as to make for a more level and fair playing field, said George Lazaridis Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations of Allied shipping in his weekly report.

The next political moves to be made by the new president in the U.S. as well as by political leaders in Europe and the Chinese president will be the point to watch now. Many hope that a lot of the talking and comments that have been made in the past 12 months are no more than “hot air” and “crowd pleasing” strategies, however a number of international firms (mostly from within the automotive industry) have already started to take note and already lining up to offer their commitment to moving production facilities closer to the consumer. If these measures are taken too far, the economic pain will not only be felt by consumers and producers but inevitably by governments themselves, George Lazaridis concluded in its latest report.


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